Europe the way forward?

As we ponder the way forward in Europe perhaps the devolution position in the UK is a model to consider.

In Scotland the settled will suggested full law making from day one would fly while in Wales the settled will would have voted no out of hand so we have a partial solution and a roadmap to something better.

The EU problem is that, to continue the analogy, they have imposed the Scottish Model on Wales then wondered why its unpopular.

So what is the way forward?

Not as the analogy may suggest a two speed approach but a realisation that the peoples of Europe are what matter.

Stereotypically we are all to a greater or lesser extent xenophobes with a mistrust of authority.

When Marillion sung of "pleading answers from the nameless faceless watchers who stalk the carpeted halls of Whitehall" they capture that concern and when established politicians subconsciously associate humour in the use of Wop to characterise Italians it demonstrates how deeply ingrained this is in the national psyche.

To be faced with foreign president and overcentralised powers was therefore too much too soon.

Our leaders must go back to the treaty drawing board and look at what it contains. Grandiose schemes like Presidents must go on the back burner whereas processes that open up the commission and give powers from bureaucrat to parliamentarian and open up the processes to the public must come to the fore.

Europe must earn the trust of its peoples with a simple treaty designed for the population not those stalking the corridors in Brussels and Strasbourg.

In short we need a Welsh treaty not the Scottish one on offer

Why Boris and Dave are wrong about crime mapping

As a GIS professional it is nice to see our field of work at the front of national politics for once.

However the Tories are making a fundamental error in suggesting live data should be available to the public.

Crime hotspot analysis is first and foremost an intelligence tool. By modelling where crime is occurring at different times of day it is in theory possible to quantify risk and deploy your resources to respond to that risk.

So what will the Tories plans achieve put simply they will ensure the police are sharing their intelligence with the criminal fraternity.

Take burglary for example. Under Daves new world the IT savy local burglar can now check out where his competitors are working see the hotspot pattern and move to another part of town away from the focussed police presence designed to catch him. Then 2 months later when the insurance claims are settled he has a nice list of properties to revisit safe in the knowledge that the TV is brand spanking new.

In short if would be like the USA sharing their troop deployment with Russia in real time at the height of the cold war.

Far from forcing forces to spend time and effort on these shiny new web sites they should invest the same resources into improving the analysis infrastructure of forces to maximise access to this information at the beat level rather than leaving it trapped with a small group of highly professional analysts

Gwyneth Dunwoody

When you see on teletext the note veteran MP dies that first though is often I hope it isn't one of ours (followed a microsecond later by how sad for the family).

Todays news I have to say leaves me feeling that it is one of ours that Parliament has lost this week. At a time when too many politicians are little more than lobby fodder for the whips it is vital for our democracy that genuine thinking politicians with a free mind can still find their way to Westminster.

That is the type of person I feel we have lost today, while Labour now praise her memory and her effectiveness I hope they select a fit replacement in the same mould to contest the seat, if not I hope they get well and truly stuffed

Do Labour MPs need reading lessons?

Are some of our poor hard working labour MPs in need of a lesson on how to read legislation?

The reason I ask is they seem to have failed to understand the text of the budget measures they voted for last year with the 10p tax band....

..or did they?

I can just imagine the discussions 12 months ago

MP1: "Gordon I dont like this cut is sounds so unfair on the poor?"
GB: "keep quiet I'll be PM in a couple of months we get another 5 years in September and everyone will have forgotten the change by then"
MP1 "OK but..."

Need we say more?

Could Labour trigger a stock market crash next week?

Its an interesting question but quite a valid one to ask now that the terms of the Bill to compensate Northern Rock shareholders has been published.

The key problem is the terms that have been set in order to determine the valuation

In determining the amount of any compensation payable by the Treasury to any person in accordance with paragraphs 3 to 5, it must be assumed (in addition to the assumptions required to be made by section 5(4) of the Act (compensation etc. for securities transferred etc.)) that Northern Rock —
(a) is unable to continue as a going concern; and
(b) is in administration.

Obviously the company was not in administration at the time of nationalisation, and was, and still is, trading normally and as a going concern (as Government Ministers have repeatedly stated).

This means that in setting the criteria the Government is ignoring the facts and could be said to be acting in a way that is ethically and morally unjust in an attempt to contrive to fix the terms of compensation.

As a result of these terms any valuation process will not be objective and independent and as such liable to legal challenge. In essence the terms of reference in the Compensation Order will mean that the panel cannot value the Company in accordance with conventional standards and practices.

And that is the rub of the whole problem,if the Government are prepared to break standard accounting rules once what is to stop them again in the future.

Does this mean any use of the lender of last resort facility from the Bank of England could leave a bank and its shareholder vulnerable to nationalisation for a pittance?

.. and if it does given the state of the credit market at the moment is it wise to hold any substantial amount of assets in this sector?

Of course this need never happen all the Government has to do is remove these clauses from the bill. At a stroke they will ensure that any valuation is not prejudged by the very people who have most to gain from it.

In so doing and ensuring the valuation is on a normal commercial basis not only will they remove the main plank of any human rights based claim from shareholders but they will also go a long way to reassuring investors that it is still safe to invest their money in UK financial companies.

And of course with all those small northern investors it won't do them any political harm either

Llandudno 2008

There is something nice about returning to an old conference haunt after a few years away and Llandudno has to be one of the oldest for me.

Last time we bought Welsh Conference here I promised our new conference chair that sunday morning would be a piece of cake and promptly got so drunk on the free post dinner shorts sponsored by S4C I didn't surface until just before midday to find out we had had almost every minor hassle on standing orders possible.

Previous visits had seen me watching the northern lights and learning the set had been involved in a near miss on the way up from london.

Was 2008 any the less eventful hardly is the answer that comes to mind the social side finally wore down between 3 and 4 each morning and the conference dinner with an excellent humerous speech from Ros Scott was one of the most successful in ages. (small memo to self don't ask RW to be the auctioneer next time)

The set piece speeches couldn't have gone much better either. You only need to read the anger of Labours elected members to realise we have hit the nail right on the head in Nick Cleggs comments about the neglect of the Valleys. Sadly the media have not been so hot in picking up on how well we have done when we run the show but you cant win them all.

Then there is the venue itself significantly expanded since we last came here about 8 years ago Venue Cymru is now a real contender for bringing Federal Spring Conference back to Wales

Rock Nationalisation just the start of Labours problems

Todays announcement of Northern Rock nationalisation is just the start of Labours problems.

I like many other demutualisation shareholders have seen the writing on the wall for weeks but at the end of the day the whole fiasco should never have been allowed to happen.

I hope tomorrow that Vince will ask the hard questions.

The questions that seek to understand what the Chancellor was doing in the summer when he knew the problems at Northern Rock were a possibility, the questions as to why the FSA allowed the directors to act in the way they did and the questions that seek to unravel if there has been a false market in Northern Rock shares since the middle of August last year.

Because these are the questions on my mind at the moment, I accept shares go up and down and are a risk but put simply I owned shares in a company who in the full knowledge of the Government were keeping price sensitive information from the market.

In fact the whole story of Northern Rock is enough to shake the foundations of confidence in the banking sector to the core.

Price sensitive information not released to shareholders, dividends announced and then withdrawn, the government inferring that a private deal was possible then pulling the plug at the last minute, rescue terms set with financially impossible criteria. Then terms of reference for compensation set by the people writing the final cheque.

Now as we go down the nationalisation route I ask myself how much less taxpayers money would have been spent with nationalisation at £4 a share in the second week of the crisis than will now have been spent over the intervening time and will be spent in the courts.

Wheter I get a penny out of this I now don't really care, what I do care about is the incompetence of our Chancellor past and present exposed to the full. All the lessons that are to be learnt learnt in full and the relevant people (and I dont mean Northern Rock employees) given their P45 at the first available opportunity